Whenever we look back on history, we are presented with a neat description of what happened and why. It all makes sense, because we have the benefit of hindsight and long-term trends to explain what at the time likely felt chaotic and surprising.

We can airbrush out surprises in the legal industry, too. It was obvious that Kirkland & Ellis and Latham & Watkins would rise to the top (it wasn’t), and clear warning signs were there for firms that collapsed (they weren’t).