You might be looking forward to a 2021 repeat of California’s 2003 gubernatorial recall spectacle as a welcome break from pandemic monotony. A rerun of the 2003 recall might be fun to watch, but California politics isn’t a reality show—it’s real life. That election was a slow-moving train wreck, with over 130 thrill-seekers and hardly any serious candidates. Many observers (Politico, for example) assume that will happen again this year and that a low bar to qualify will lead to hundreds of candidates.

Maybe, but it doesn’t have to.