The House of Representatives’ Jan. 13 impeachment of Donald Trump set the stage for the Senate’s current, ongoing impeachment trial of the former president. Trump has been charged by the House with “incitement of insurrection” and, if convicted, faces “disqualification” from any future “office of honor, trust, or profit under the United States.”

According to the conventional wisdom, the outcome of the Senate trial is a foregone conclusion: acquittal of Trump. The outcome seems assured in the minds of most because the U.S. Constitution’s text requires conviction by a supermajority—specifically, a two-thirds vote. It does seem hard to imagine 17 or more Republican senators lining up with 50 Democrats against Trump.