Deregulation crashed and burned this year, but the other major driver behind recent economic growth – technology – remains as dynamic as ever, says Richard Kemp
There are no easy answers as to what 2009-10 will hold for IT lawyers. What is certain is that recessions always feel worse than the numbers suggest. The last two years of recession in the UK – 1980 and 1990-91 – saw gross domestic product (GDP) drop by 2% and 1.4% respectively. So, assume no growth for 2008, a recession of -2% pa in 2009 and no growth in 2010 (at the bottom end of Bank of England expectations) and you get to a GDP per worker figure of £49,000 two years from now. Compare that with HM Treasury’s October 2007 (pre-downturn) forecast of £54,250, and the difference – of over £5,000 – explains why a 2% GDP contraction over three years will have a major impact.
