Credit: xy/stock.adobe.com
U.S. equity-index futures rose with Treasuries as investors weighed easing inflationary pressures and slowing retail sales to gauge the direction of Federal Reserve policy.
Contracts on the S&P 500 spiked to session highs after growth in producer prices fell more than expected last month, adding to evidence the Fed is making progress in taming inflation. Retail sales fell more than projected, fueling worries that the aggressive rise in interest rates could tip the economy into a recession. The dollar fell versus major peers except the yen.
In the premarket session in New York, Moderna Inc. climbed 7.7% after saying its vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus infections met targets. International Business Machines Corp. fell after Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation on the stock.
Investors are focusing on indicators of growth and inflation to assess when exactly will the Fed and other major central banks halt their interest-rate increases. Data, including Taiwan’s economic contraction in the fourth quarter and slowing U.K. inflation, as well as a more muted start to the U.S. earnings-reporting season, boosted those who believe monetary easing would have to begin this year.
“We assume that inflation will look better in the second half,” Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, wrote in a note. “While we envision more choppiness in markets in the first quarter, we see markets settling into a slow grind higher after that.”
The yen dropped as much as 2.6% against the dollar after Japan’s policymakers doubled down on defending their stimulus, defying intense market speculation. The currency later trimmed the losses to 0.2%. Even as investors remain on guard for the central bank to continue large scale bond buying to protect its yield goal, there are doubts about how long it can continue.
Fed officials Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan and Patrick Harker will speak Wednesday, providing potential clues on the outlook for rates in the world’s largest economy.
The yen’s drop proved to be an idiosyncratic trend in the foreign-exchange markets as the dollar fell against all but six of its 31 major peers, including the Japanese currency.
Moderna rose in early New York trading after its RSV shot proved highly effective in preventing lung disease in older patients. IBM fell as Morgan Stanley cut the stock to equal-weight from overweight.
Treasuries rose across the curve, with longer-dated bonds posting bigger yield reductions than shorter-dated ones. Oil futures headed for a ninth day of advances on optimism Chinese demand will recover rapidly following the abandonment of COVID Zero.
Iron ore rose for a second day amid China’s improving economic outlook. Gold edged higher.
Srinivasan Sivabalan reports for Bloomberg News.
NOT FOR REPRINT
© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.
