Peloton’s Wild Stock Ride Makes M&A Bit More Tricky

Wild swings in Peloton Interactive Inc.’s stock price and a “factory reset” of the exercise-bike maker’s business have left investors scratching their heads over how much the stock is worth and what price a prospective buyer would need to pay to acquire the one-time pandemic star.

The unprofitable maker of $2,000-plus web-connected stationary bikes saw its shares soar more than 50% in the last two days, fired up by reports of takeover interest and Tuesday’s wholesale changes at its organization. The overhaul left analysts divided over whether Barry McCarthy’s appointment as chief executive officer will increase or decrease the likelihood of a sale, with Barclays Plc analysts saying Peloton shares were at “day 0 of factory reset.”

The deal most comparable to Peloton is Lululemon Athletica Inc.’s $500 million deal for Mirror in 2020, according to special situations research firm United First Partners, which was priced at 3.9 times Lululemon’s projection of the target’s 2021 revenue. At that multiple, Peloton would fetch about $51 per share, United First said Tuesday. That’s 37% above Tuesday’s close of $37.27 and more than double the price Friday before the reports of M&A interest.

Still, that would be a big comedown from the stock’s 2021 high above $167. Peloton was a darling of investors during the pandemic when fitness fans, cooped up at home, flocked to its sleek gadgets and subscription services. The shares tumbled 86% from the peak as the outbreak eased, sending customers back to their reopened gyms. The stock recovered some ground this week after reports that Amazon.com Inc. and Nike Inc. were interested in a potential acquisition.

“You think you know what things look like, but then that will change on a dime with the latest headline,” said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. “How do you invest on that?”

In another similar deal, Google parent Alphabet Inc. paid a roughly 70% premium for Fitbit, which would imply a price of more than $40 a share for Peloton based on Friday’s closing price.

The rally of the past two days probably was driven in part by short sellers buying back stock after the reports of M&A interest. Almost 13% of the shares available for trading had been sold short as of Monday, according to IHS Markit Ltd.

Peloton now sells at less than three times estimated sales, cheaper than the Nasdaq 100 Index’s 4.6 times. A majority on Wall Street still remain bullish on the stock, with more than half of analysts tracked by Bloombeg rating the company a buy and the average price target of $42.81 implying a 15% gain from current levels.

Still, price targets are all over the place. Mario Lu at Barclays lowered his forecast Wednesday to $60 from $90, while Telsey Advisory Group’s Dana Telsey raised hers to $40 from $30. Peloton’s second-quarter revenue missed estimates and the company again lowered its forecast for 2022.

The recent underperformance of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index has supressed the valuation premium of the index relative to the S&P 500 Index. Still, the Nasdaq 100 remains pricey trading at a 27% premium to the S&P 500, well above its five-year average.

Jeran Wittenstein and Thyagaraju Adinarayan report for Bloomberg News.

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