Since the details of JPMorgan’s settlement were revealed in December, Wall Street firms have been poring over publicly available data to estimate their clients’ potential exposure from soured residential mortgage–backed securities. The total price tag for the remaining 15 largest bank issuers: $48 billion, when each bank’s total RMBS issuances during the relevant time period are compared to JPMorgan’s yields. To arrive at those estimates, we collected RMBS issuance and exposure data and analyzed each component of the JPMorgan settlement, deriving percentages based on JPMorgan’s settlement amount divided by publicly reported RMBS exposure. The $4 billion homeowner relief portion of the bank’s total $13 billion outlay, viewed as a percentage of the $9 billion monetary payout (44 percent), is also extrapolated for the rest of the banks. Seven of the 15 banks have already resolved some litigation claims, which lowers their overall exposure. Estimated liability under this analysis doesn’t take into account each bank’s specific conduct and/or RMBS default rate, which vary.—Julie Triedman

JPMorgan Settlement FIRREA FHFA FDIC NCUA Payments to states Total enforcement settlements Payments for consumer relief Total projected/actual exposure
Breakout of indivual settlements: $2B $4B $500M $1.4B $1B $9B $4B $13B
Settlement as percent of known exposure/claim: 0.43% 11% 0.11% 30% 0.23%
15 Banks facing largest liability for residential mortgage-backed securities: Projected state exposure Projected enforcement settlements Projected consumer relief demands
Bank of America $2.8B Paid $6.3B $700M resolved $1.5B $5B $5.2B $10.3B
known exposure: $640B $60B $600B unknown $600B
RBS $400M $5.4B $100M $1B $200M $7B $3B $10B
known exposure: $91B $48B $90B $3.2B $90B
Credit Suisse $400M $2.2B $100M $200M $210M $3B $1.4B $4.4B
known exposure: $93B $20B $93B $600M $93B
Goldman Sachs $500M $1.3B $150M $100M $270M $2B $1.4B $3.4B
known exposure: $121B $12B $121B $300M $120B
Morgan Stanley $420M Paid $1.3B $100M $150M $220M $990M $900M $1.9B
known exposure: $97B $11B $100B $400M $100B
Wells Fargo $660M Resolved $170M $75M $350M $1.2B $600M $1.8B
known exposure: $151B Unknown $150B $200M $150B
Ally $750M Resolved Resolved $20M $400M $1.2B $500M $1.7B
known exposure: $170B $6B unknown $70M $170B
Barclays $160M $640M $40M $100M $80M $1B $450M $1.5B
known exposure: $37B $5.5B $37B $300M $37B
HSBC $110M $700M $30M Resolved $60M $900M $400M $1.3B
known exposure: $26B $6.2B $30B unknown $26B
Citigroup $400M Resolved $100M Resolved $210M $700M $300M $1B
known exposure: $91B $4.7B $90B unknown $90B
UBS $220M Resolved $60M $260M $110M $700M $300M $1B
known exposure $50B $7.3B $51B $900M $51B
Deutsche Bank $330M Resolved $80M Resolved $175M $600M $250M $850M
known exposure: $76B $19B $75B unknown $75B
Nomura $110M $230M none none $55M $400M $200M $600M
known exposure: $25B $2B none none $25B
First Horizon $120M $100M $30M none $60M $300M $150M $450M
known exposure: $28B $900M $27B none $28B
SocGen $20M $130M none none $11M $160M $70M $230M
known exposure: $5B $1.2B none none $5B