Almost immediately upon debuting at this year’s Sundance Film Festival, Blue Valentine began to draw Oscar buzz. Critics hailed the movie, which stars Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams, as a painfully raw portrait of a marriage gone sour. The hype picked up as the film traveled the festival circuit to Toronto and Cannes.

Scheduled for a December 31 release, Blue Valentine seemed poised for a strong awards season—and the accompanying commercial success. Then the Motion Picture Association of America weighed in.