The new year is the time when newspapers’ crystal ball-gazing reaches its annual peak. It’s also the time of year when I’m asked what I believe the story for 2008 will be.

As offices reopen across the country, the rather gloomy January weather has been matched by a plethora of unsurprisingly bleak economic forecasts. Take the Financial Times on 2 January. Not usually one for hyperbole, its front page screamed ”Worst outlook since dotcom bust” following its annual survey of leading economists.