Victor TettmanrDebate continues about where the UK economy sits in the recessionary cycle. The picture is confused by the disparity between the global, US, European and Asian economies, volatility of worldwide share prices and, of course, the war in the Middle East. To an extent, the debate is academic, given the trail of high-profile global corporate failures in recent years.

Financial distress has not yet reached UK small and medium enterprises, but will surely come. Recent forecasts predict company insolvencies will top 20,000 this year, rising to 25,000 by 2005. All this creates uncertainty for UK businesses.