Many lawyers overestimate their chances of success when predicting the outcomes of civil or criminal cases, according to UC-Irvine psychologist and law professor Elizabeth Loftus. She co-authored the study, which appears in the May issue of Psychology, Public Policy & Law.
Excessive optimism can lead clients to litigation instead of settling, according to the researchers. The study surveyed 481 U.S. lawyers who represented plaintiffs and defendants in criminal and civil cases expected to go to trial in six to 12 months. They were asked what they’d consider a win situation at the minimum. They then rated their confidence of achieving that goal on a scale from zero to 100 percent.
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