As a restructuring professional I am often asked whether the U.S. economy will be in recession next year. I can predict with a high degree of certainty three things: a recession is on its way; no one really knows when it will arrive; you will benefit by planning and acting now for that inevitable downturn.

What exactly is a recession anyway? Most economists agree that it is a period of at least six months of general economic decline, most notably defined by a contraction in the gross domestic product or GDP. Recessions are a normal part of the business cycle—a period covering a recession, then economic expansion to the next recession. From 1945 to 2009, the end of the last recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research has identified 11 business cycles, with the average cycle lasting 5 ½ years.

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