David A. Carrillo, left, and Brandon V. Stracener, right, of the California Constitution Center at Berkeley Law. Courtesy photos
Some commentators are expecting a major shift in California’s direction if Gov. Gavin Newsom is recalled. That’s possible; when Arnold Schwarzenegger replaced Gray Davis there was some bipartisanship and some resulting policy shifts. But in 2003 Republicans and Democrats were closely matched, at 35.3% and 43.6% of registered voters respectively; in 2021 Democratic voters are 46.2%—nearly double the 24.1% Republican voters.
Along with some other facts of California life, that shift suggests a more complex set of possible scenarios than a reductive California-turns-red-or-stays-blue narrative. And that presents grave risks for both Democrats and Republicans in any recall outcome.
