In June 2011 both the legal and mainstream media covered Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc.’s release of a table showing the attorney surplus in each of the country’s 50 states plus Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico for 2009. I’d posted a near-identical analysis on my blog three months earlier after comparing the number of graduates from ABA-accredited law schools to the number of lawyer jobs created by growth and replacement in each state in 2009.
While the results of the two analyses were similar, EMSI and I had different purposes in producing them. My goal was only to calculate the surplus of ABA law school graduates over lawyer job openings because my research tends to focus more on the value of legal education and excessive student loan debt, which makes non-ABA and foreign law school graduates less relevant to me. EMSI, on the other hand, was more interested in the lawyer surplus itself.
I’d like to think I did a better job achieving my goal than EMSI did accomplishing what it set out to do. For example, EMSI originally found that both Wisconsin and Washington, D.C. did not suffer from attorney surpluses, but it failed to account for a couple of critical facts: Graduates of Wisconsin’s two law schools can petition the bar without taking Wisconsin’s bar exam thanks to the state’s diploma privilege rule. (As a Marquette grad, I know this from personal experience.) Washington, D.C., for its part, licenses a large percentage of its new lawyers by motion thanks to its generous rules. EMSI also calculated the annual number of lawyer jobs with its proprietary short-term measure of future job openingsa five-year periodwhile I used the ten-year projections provided by state governments. As a result, the annual lawyer job growth rate EMSI arrived at for some states was as much as 20 percent higher than the state government calculations, which led it to report lower law graduate and lawyer surpluses than I’d found.
Two years later, most state governments have updated both their lawyer employment estimates for 2020 and their projected annual lawyer job growth rate for the period spanning 2010 to 2020, so it’s possible to gauge any improvement or deterioration in the annual attorney surplus between the previous 2009 estimate and what is now available for 2011. For purposes of comparison, here are the 2008 and 2010 lawyer counts, the 2018 and 2020 projections, and the annual job growth rates for the periods between 2008 and 2018 and 2010 and 2020. I’ve included totals for each Bureau of Economic Analysis region as well.
STATE/BEA REGION | No. Employed Lawyers | Lawyer Employment Projections | Annual Lawyer Growth Rate | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | 2010 | 2018 | 2020 | 2008 | 2010 | |
Alabama | 7,910 | 7,347 | 8,420 | 8,390 | 200 | 240 |
Alaska | 1,330 | 993 | 1,270 | 1,048 | 30 | 20 |
Arizona | 11,880 | 11,643 | 12,450 | 13,911 | 280 | 450 |
Arkansas | 3,430 | 4,546 | 3,840 | 5,028 | 110 | 130 |
California | 94,900 | 86,700 | 100,800 | 95,100 | 2,360 | 2,490 |
Colorado | 14,090 | 14,158 | 14,710 | 14,897 | 330 | 340 |
Connecticut | 9,940 | 9,208 | 9,930 | 9,396 | 190 | 190 |
Delaware | 2,900 | 3,037 | 3,000 | 3,058 | 60 | 60 |
District of Columbia | 42,410 | 41,669 | 44,180 | 48,041 | 970 | 1,430 |
Florida | 52,980 | 54,091 | 56,820 | 63,384 | 1,370 | 1,960 |
Georgia | 20,900 | 18,295 | 24,560 | 21,731 | 760 | 690 |
Hawaii | 2,970 | 2,261 | 2,950 | 2,404 | 60 | 60 |
Idaho | 2,710 | 2,621 | 3,080 | 2,812 | 90 | 70 |
Illinois | 38,080 | 32,868 | 42,290 | 36,334 | 1,130 | 970 |
Indiana | 9,740 | 9,249 | 11,310 | 10,191 | 340 | 270 |
Iowa | 4,340 | 4,467 | 4,910 | 4,952 | 140 | 130 |
Kansas | 5,210 | 5,059 | 5,940 | 5,528 | 170 | 140 |
Kentucky | 6,510 | 6,860 | 7,070 | 7,460 | 180 | 190 |
Louisiana | 10,770 | 9,301 | 11,270 | 10,249 | 250 | 270 |
Maine | 2,800 | 2,811 | 2,800 | 3,007 | 50 | 70 |
Maryland | 14,300 | 13,988 | 13,570 | 15,350 | 270 | 400 |
Massachusetts | 21,600 | 21,114 | 21,900 | 24,093 | 430 | 700 |
Michigan | 19,030 | 14,790 | 20,210 | 15,180 | 470 | 320 |
Minnesota | 15,290 | 12,058 | 16,160 | 12,935 | 370 | 320 |
Mississippi | 5,260 | 3,770 | 5,740 | 4,109 | 150 | 30 |
Missouri | 11,520 | 12,434 | 11,410 | 14,441 | 220 | 440 |
Montana | 1,870 | 2,550 | 2,070 | 2,717 | 60 | 70 |
Nebraska | 3,400 | 3,254 | 3,750 | 3,366 | 100 | 70 |
Nevada | 4,840 | 5,428 | 5,690 | 5,707 | 150 | 130 |
New Hampshire | 2,350 | 2,439 | 2,400 | 2,571 | 50 | 60 |
New Jersey | 28,650 | 26,165 | 28,650 | 28,688 | 540 | 750 |
New Mexico | 3,550 | 3,019 | 3,580 | 3,116 | 70 | 70 |
New York | 86,140 | 66,695 | 87,080 | 70,079 | 1,700 | 1,610 |
North Carolina | 14,310 | 13,653 | 16,170 | 15,630 | 450 | 460 |
North Dakota | 1,240 | 1,316 | 1,300 | 1,447 | 30 | 40 |
Ohio | 19,860 | 20,198 | 20,750 | 21,817 | 460 | 550 |
Oklahoma | 8,100 | 8,866 | 8,680 | 9,883 | 210 | 270 |
Oregon | 4,980 | 5,049 | 5,610 | 5,800 | 160 | 180 |
Pennsylvania | 28,400 | 27,953 | 29,400 | 30,067 | 640 | 740 |
Puerto Rico | 4,180 | 3,949 | 4,350 | 4,178 | 100 | 100 |
Rhode Island | 2,710 | 2,401 | 2,980 | 2,517 | 80 | 60 |
South Carolina | 6,640 | 6,703 | 7,260 | 7,371 | 190 | 200 |
South Dakota | N/A | 1,520 | N/A | 1,611 | N/A | 40 |
Tennessee | 8,720 | N/A | 9,160 | N/A | 210 | N/A |
Texas | 44,680 | 44,329 | 51,360 | 52,215 | 1,500 | 1,630 |
Utah | 7,080 | 5,398 | 8,580 | 6,456 | 280 | 210 |
Vermont | 2,070 | 1,997 | 2,270 | 2,111 | 60 | 50 |
Virginia | 19,780 | 19,391 | 23,390 | 23,275 | 730 | 760 |
Washington | 14,840 | 14,231 | 16,320 | 16,003 | 440 | 460 |
West Virginia | 2,940 | 3,062 | 2,970 | 3,258 | 60 | 80 |
Wisconsin | 10,390 | 9,709 | 10,230 | 10,403 | 190 | 250 |
Wyoming | 940 | 757 | 1,040 | 864 | 30 | 80 |
U.S.A. (States) | 765,460 | 705,370 | 815,630 | 784,179 | 19,470 | 21,300 |
U.S.A. (BLS) | 759,200 | 728,200 | 857,700 | 801,800 | 24,040 | 21,200 |
New England | 41,470 | 39,970 | 42,280 | 43,695 | 860 | 1,130 |
Mideast | 202,800 | 179,507 | 205,880 | 195,283 | 4,180 | 4,990 |
Great Lakes | 97,100 | 86,814 | 104,790 | 93,925 | 2,590 | 2,360 |
Plains | 41,000 | 40,108 | 43,470 | 44,280 | 1,030 | 1,180 |
Southeast | 160,150 | 147,019 | 176,670 | 169,885 | 4,660 | 5,010 |
Southwest | 68,210 | 67,857 | 76,070 | 79,125 | 2,060 | 2,420 |
Rocky Mountains | 26,690 | 25,484 | 29,480 | 27,746 | 790 | 770 |
Far West | 123,860 | 114,662 | 132,640 | 126,062 | 3,200 | 3,340 |