History teaches us certain things about attitudes to booms and busts. We know both are usually exaggerated at the time. We also know that attitudes often lag reality, especially with busts. The lag factor means people can come their most gloomy when the worst point has already past. A famous example is Bill Clinton’s election pledge to fight a recession that had, it was later discovered, already ended.
You could argue this lag has happened in legal services. Several firms have told me recently that their worst trading was way back in October /November. Yet judged by the collective mood, fuelled by a wave of legal job losses, many would have assumed that February/March was the real low point.
