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Two decades into the battle over Chevron’s environmental legacy in Ecuador, the stage finally seems to be set for the final act. With Chevron facing an $18 billion Ecuadorean judgment over pollution in Lago Agrio and arbitrators mulling whether to roll the judgment back, it’s time to predict how the play will end. In my last Global Lawyer column, I concluded that ordering Ecuador to indemnify Chevron is the least problematic relief available to the arbitrators. In this column, I will explain how I see the global dispute playing out. Hint: Before the curtain falls, the oil company wins.

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