Ann Israel is the legal profession's Dear Abby. A New York legal recruiter since 1979, Ann is a past president of the National Association of Legal Search Consultants. Advice for the Lawlorn is updated every week.

Q: I am an senior associate at a large law firm that is ranked toward the middle of the Vault 50, and am in my partner year. Our firm has a single tier of partners, and has traditionally been an up-or-out, one-look firm a la Cravath, albeit with an eight-year, not seven-year, track, though this has been eroding. Last year at least one person was deferred.

My specialty is lending and corporate finance with strong credentials in bankruptcy financing, work outs, distressed debt and other relatively hot areas. I have been relatively busy this year and believe I will finish the year off 5-10 percent from last year's billing total, and last year was a busy year.

Looking at my chances for partnership, I would have expected to have a very high chance at partnership in a normal year, but have no idea what normal is this year. That said, I do believe there is a strong possibility I will be made partner, but the gray skies are getting me down.

To anticipate some questions, I have no business of my own, graduated in the top 20 of my class at a top 5 law school (and with honors from a top college if it matters). Four years ago I lateraled to my current firm from a top-10 Vault firm.

The question is, what should I be doing? I get calls from recruiters, thankfully, but I have a hard time imagining someone offering me a job that would be contingent on my not making partner. In addition, I don't want to spend time interviewing and the like, if it is too soon. I doubt anyone is going to offer me a partnership outright, so what is the best thing to do: Sit tight, interview for networking purposes, lateral and get my partnership decision postponed to a better economy, or hire a soothsayer?

Dear Anticipating: This is really a time when a crystal ball would come in handy. Absent that orb, I don't know how else we divine what is about to happen to you.

This is a difficult position that you have found yourself in and I am afraid that no one can really answer your questions for you. This is a situation you are going to have to work out yourself.

How can anyone predict whether or not you are going to make partner at your current firm? I can tell you that in the very best of times there have been senior associates who everyone said were absolute locks for partnership and when the announcements came out, their names were not on the list of new partners. What happened? Well, their partners certainly were supporters for them but the rest of the partnership didn't agree. There were other senior associates who were stronger candidates and had more powerful partners backing them.

In your particular situation you have a very bad economy working against you. My guess is that if things continue as they are, very few people will be named to any partnership at the end of 2008. Your billings are down, you have no business of your own and you have only been with the firm for four years in addition to that bad economy. How many other associates are there in your class year at your firm? Are there any who have been there since they were summer associates? Are they stars? What practice area are they in? Have they been busy? In other words, what does your competition look like?

You mentioned that you are still getting calls from recruiters. Are they asking you if you have portable business or are they interested in you because you are in the financing, work outs, distressed debt practice area, which currently is a relatively hot practice area? My guess is they are looking for distressed debt people right now and they don't expect that you would have any portable business.

Being realistic, you should understand that any firm you go to at this time, without a portable book of business, is not going to bring you in as a partner, nor or they going to wait to see if you make partner at your current firm (as you suspected). They need a senior associate now to fill a need in their distressed debt practice group.

And I am guessing that, just as at your firm, other firms probably have no intention of making a slew of partners -- perhaps in the foreseeable future -- due to the economy. But even if these firms are in a great economic position, and are willing to vote any number of associates into the partnership, most firms have a steadfast rule as to how long an associate must be at the firm before they are eligible to be up for partnership. You certainly might be able to negotiate some kind of deal (i.e., 2 years instead of 4) but you shouldn't be under the impression that going to another firm means that you will be up for partnership any sooner than at your current firm. This crazy economy has really messed things up, hasn't it?

So, what do I suggest? Have you spoken with the lead partner in your practice group lately? Have you asked him or her what your chances are of making partner? Perhaps even going to the managing partner of the firm might be in order here. After all, you really have nothing to lose. If the answer seems to indicate that your chances are slim to none at the present time, I suggest that you follow up on some of those leads offered to you by the headhunters. On the interviews you can then ask those partners about partnership opportunities and exactly what it would take to become a shareholder. It might actually be a shorter road at another firm; another lateral move could end up being the right thing to do at this point in your career.

Without exploring options and speaking to all the powers that be, you really are just guessing at what might be happening down the road. You need to find out as much as you possibly can at this time and then try to make an intelligent decision based on whatever information you are able to gather. Once you do have some details, write back to me and fill me in. I might be able to give you better advice at that time and that also would be helpful to more people. Best wishes!

Sincerely,
Ann M. Israel
President, Ann Israel & Associates