This is the year of low expectations, where even some who have been elected to partnership -- and who expected to make the cut -- sound surprised. "I was not so confident, given the economy," says Rena Chng, a newly elected partner at Mayer BrownK's Palo Alto, Calif., office. Though Chng says she had successfully handled a big litigation matter this past year and was the only one in her office to be put up for partnership, she says, "If they had said, 'You won't make it this year,' I would have understood."

Indeed, the number of newly minted partners has generally plummeted since last year -- along, presumably, with the firms' business. For instance, Milbank Tweed Hadley & McCloy promoted just four this year, compared to 11 last year; O'Melveny & Myers, 15 (23 last year); Mayer Brown, 27 (43 last year); Morrison & Foerster, ten (24 last year); Simpson Thacher & Bartlett, five (eight for 2007; 13 for 2006); Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, eight (13 last year); and Weil, Gotshal & Manges, seven (21 last year).

These numbers seem like an obvious bow to economic reality. So is Jones Day partner Joe Sims ignoring that reality when he says, "We make decisions on an individual basis; we don't pay attention to current economic circumstances. These are long-term decisions"?

If so, there's money behind his words. Jones Day made 40 income and equity partners this year, only slightly down from 45 last year. Covington & Burling, a firm that also professes that the economy is not a factor in its decisions, doubled the number of its new partners this year, from six to 12 -- all equity, and evenly split among litigation, corporate, and regulatory work. Covington partner Mitchell Dolin says, "There's a lot of pain in the corporate world," but adds, "We have talented people, and we promote them."

Still, some of the numbers are just snapshots that don't reveal other factors in the partner-making process. Some firms, for example, are acting on decisions made long ago and, for better or worse, they are sticking to the business plan.

Latham & Watkins, for one, just anointed 30 new partners, compared to 26 last year. A substantial majority of those partners are equity, says a source close to the firm. The firm declined to specify. But Latham's robust numbers might not be a sign of health or confidence. Latham, which is known for its lengthy partner vetting process, "essentially voted [on the class] last summer," says this source -- before the economy tanked. "It's hard to unscramble the eggs," says a partner at another firm about Latham's early partnership commitment. Citing Latham's substantial finance practice, this partner says, Next year is the one to watch."

Another curiosity is Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft, which just crowned seven new partners after making only two last year. That sharp increase is striking, considering that the troubled firm laid off more than 100 lawyers in the past year. So has the firm with one of the biggest asset-based finance practices in the country turned the corner? Not exactly, warns a former Cadwalader lawyer. The firm was "contractually bound" to promote the lawyers, says this source, almost all of whom were hired as laterals with the understanding that they would become partners this year. The firm declined to comment.

While Latham and Cadwalader have given equity to many of their new partners, the bet is that there are more new income rather than equity partners. Though firms are frequently cagey about equity versus income partners, parking newbies in the income column is an easy way to maintain the appearance of a growing partnership. "It's not really much of a hit to make [nonequity] partners," says an Am Law 100 partner. "There's not much difference [in pay] between a senior associate and an income partner."

How long firms can support even a stable of income partners is anyone's guess. Keith Wetmore, the head of Morrison & Foerster, is one of the few partners we spoke to who was up-front about the ravages of the economic meltdown. "We generate the same number of talented candidates, but we have to be cognizant of the larger economy," says Wetmore. "Our clients would have been surprised if we acted like business as usual; they don't need more partners on their matters." Making fewer partners is hardly the worst that can happen, Wetmore hints. "Right now, everything is on the table," he says ominously.